Seibertron.com Energon Pub Forums

NOTE:
This is an article I wrote, it is themed as a conversation or argument even. Hopefully it sparks some discussion and helps some of the new guys out as they get into the hobby. For those interested, this kind of article may become a regular thing.


Punch: This one’s about the market folks or more specifically the current market for Transformers collecting. We’re going to look at a few trends, traps, and realities of what may be the most stable and profitable (read: Expensive) toy collecting fandom.

Counterpunch: Any discussion of this issue would be completely off base if we did not first separate the market into two distinct and equally treacherous branches: G1 and everything else.

Punch: Agreed. However, in saying ‘everything else’ we aren’t meaning to degrade or somehow put off the non-G1 toys. It’s simply that the realities of the G1 market merit their own side discussion.

Counterpunch: There are basics to all manner of Transformers collecting that we are going to first and foremost agree on. There are three cardinal rules where if we and more importantly you can’t accept, you should just quit reading right now.

The Rules:
1. Pay to play. Don’t kid yourself, ever. Pound for pound, collecting Transformers is about banking money and understanding that you are going to pay early, often, and in considerable sums.

2. Prices do not ‘go down’. Unlike StarWars or other collectable where technology consistently improves and the toys are actually better than they were 20+ years ago; Transformers only becomes different. Sure, articulation improves, but essentially, a car is still going to unfold into a robot. Even the oldest Transformers toys are no where near as time dated as the 1990’s Star Wars stuff. So, Transformers fans never have to ‘upgrade’ a character. Where as a 1990’s Luke Skywalker is a retarded hunk of plastic compared with an SA version.

Punch: and third:

3. Quantities are limited. As for some of the mass-produced figures like Classics Starscream or Energon Tidalwave…where are they? Shouldn’t these be on the shelf when we want them? Why am I literally battling Wal-Mart to find Cybertron Wingsaber? The popularity of Transformer combined with you, me, kids, and sweaty fan-boi #7 really ensures that toys do not linger on the shelves. (Though Energon Ironhide is a note worthy exception. ‘F’ that toy, right?)

Counterpunch: So we’re in agreement then?

Punch: Most certainly. I think we should dive right into the vintage market and address this issue up front. This of course means tackling the big issue, the elephant in the room per se.

Counterpunch: The movie?

Punch: The movie and its relevance to the vintage market is very, very important. What we’re seeing is not even a gradual assault on the formerly stable vintage market. We’re seeing a bump in prices which approaches 30% in most areas. The movie has awakened hordes of former fans who now want a piece of the action. They are older (about 25-30), have jobs, and are willing to drop some cash to reclaim their childhood.

Counterpunch: I agree with you that the movie is the driving factor here. I am not entirely sure it is purely Gen-Xers that are fueling this though. Sellers are doing their part as well. Looking through eBay of late reveals that many vintage figures are simply placed online with considerably higher BuyItNow prices than they were drawing even a year ago. The marketplace is taking advantage of the movie fervor by upping the cost of entry into the collecting game.

Punch: I will concede that even the dealer room of BotCon this year was very difficult to find a deal of any kind in.

Counterpunch: And I can concede that there really are more people out there to snatch up any deals that do lend themselves to the market at any given time.

Punch: At any rate, the vintage market is a tough sea to navigate properly. Remember when the reissues were announced and everyone thought that the values of those reissued toys would crash?

Counterpunch: Indeed and it never played out that way at all.

Punch: Exactly, this all goes to support my demand side for this discussion. The demand from the growing fan-base is enough to support even several rounds of reissues.

Counterpunch: Touché good sir. You are indeed a scholar and a gentleman. All things considered, the vintage market remains a solid investment. It follows the 3 rules perfectly. Prices are prohibitive, even in the best situation you aren’t going to find ‘deals’ which means the market is steady and people recognize the worth of the toys they have.

Punch: Right, and to further this, Prices do not go down. We already mentioned the reissue, issue. The market is varied enough (incorporating both ‘true’ vintage, read: originals, and character vintage, where the figure, not the date, is important).

Counterpunch: And lastly, quantities are limited and more limited every year. G1 figures break and degrade into uselessness more so every year. If you don’t believe this, go out and try to hunt down a good condition Vroom. If that proves too difficult, go with Jetfire. Approaching 25 years in age for most of these toys means they are becoming real antiques.

Punch: So we move on now to the Post-G1 era. This will encompass everything from G2 through Classics (Beast Wars/Machines, RiD, Armada, Energon, Cybertron, you name it)

Counterpunch: If you had asked me about the value of these toys a year ago, two years ago, I would have pointed to the wasteland known as eBay as proof that these toys just do not have or hold value.

Punch: Now in retrospect, that would make you an ass.

Counterpunch: Indeed it would.

Punch: Something has happened to this side of the market and no one can really point to a time or event that was the catalyst. Even the movie can’t really claim credit for this one.

Counterpunch: I first notices the trend at Christmas a year or so ago when several people were commenting that they were having trouble finding Cybertron Leobreaker on eBay for a reasonable price. My disbelief was considerable especially since the toy had been so absurdly plentiful not long before.

Punch: Before we continue, be assured that there is an argument about to develop in this discussion, we’re not all sunshine and lollipops on this issue at all.

Counterpunch: Right, but we have to agree that there are many, many figures that have been released over the past few years which are now seeing close to 100% increases in their value on the secondary market. Noteworthy mentions include the aforementioned Leobreaker- $50, Brave Maximus $250-$350, Classics Starscream- $25, Armada Starscream $40+?, Energon Omega Sentinel- $65-100, BW Rattrap (75$ F’ing dollars for a basic?!?), Alternator Camshaft, Swerve, Decepticharge, Mirage…- More $$ than they should be…. and so forth.

Punch: That we do. I’ve seen Universe Tankor and Obsidian sell for upwards of $35-40 on eBay. Those are horrible toys people and you should all be ashamed of yourselves.

Counterpunch: So, we’re left with a choice; to pay now, or to pay later. Many collectors have taken up the mantra: If I find it, I buy it. I subscribe whole-heartedly to this concept. It’s much better to pay retail on sight than it is to suck it up and pay (grudgingly) 2-3x the MSRP on eBay.

Punch: On the other and potentially more intelligent hand, I can not remember a line in recent history that has NOT gone to clearance at sometime or another. Maybe there are 3-5 figures in a given line that will perform very well on eBay and the secondary market. That leaves 30-40 figures that will not increase instantly. The real incentive and smart, practical move for any collector (or completionist) is to wait out these deals. What you will save over time, should be considerably more than the premium you may or may not pay on those hard to find figures.

Counterpunch: As compelling an argument as that is, it ignores our firmly established Rule #1: Pay to Play. For that matter, it basically ignores Rule #2 as well. If prices will not go down, they can really only go up.

Punch: You should realize that those rules apply to the long-term for collecting. It’s taken Energon up until now to see those realized values for the toys. In the short term, playing the retail market to its fullest can help keep the frugal collector afloat. Keeping with Energon, there were a lot of people who were able to acquire the majority of the line after the Christmas season it ended and all on clearance prices.

Counterpunch: That’s a great single instance you pointed out there. It did not happen in Armada, Cybertron, or Classics. For that matter, good luck finding Titaniums or Alternators from the first wave or two 3-4 months after release (which people never did). Mass market lines have the potential to provide excellent clearance prices under the right circumstances, all I am cautioning people on, is that in no way should you make a strategy of that when looking to acquire a line or even a specifically popular figure, otherwise, you end up paying $40 for Energon Tidalwave like an ass (of which the author of this article is guilty, but would like to redeem himself by saying that he bought Alternator Swerve on sight just because he’d ‘probably never see it again’)

Punch: Fair enough, since you were able to concede the G1 analysis to me, I can let this one go to you. Despite all the ranting and venomous assaults on the quality and design of the new age of Transformers toys, they have been undeniably popular. While I can’t understand exactly just who out there is buying these things, they are leaving the shelves.

In Conclusion:

We either pound the pavement, in search of these toys as they hit, or we fume on eBay in vain attempts to not fund ‘scalpers’ as we try to get the best deal on the latest figure. The ‘wave’ release system has gone a long way to almost demanding our presence in stores to hunt down the latest figures. Recent trends have shown that the cost of not being up to date on what is available and when will literally cost us in the long run. On the other hand, there is a whole lot of satisfaction in buying a $20 figure, only to see it approaching 40-60 dollars on eBay in a year or so.

The vintage G1 market is and has always been a bed rock of collecting. In almost no instance will your investment in these toys, over time, see you at a loss. It’s a hard market to deal in, because condition, completeness, and availability are all demons that will haunt you as you collect. Prices are rising for these toys for a variety of reasons and kind of like the housing boom, these reasons will most certainly cause a permanent increase in value no matter how much we’d still like to find affordable G1 Wheeljacks at $60 (Try the $100-120 range for a nice C9 version…)

Good luck to you in your hunting endeavors. Just know that whatever figure you are looking for in Wal-Mart, I’m there snatching up before you at the butt-crack of dawn and when you get sniped for that G1 figure you really wanted on eBay, well, check back with Rule #1.

We’re out.

ahh, i love you cp.
and i hate sweaty fan-boi #7

decepticonjon wrote:ahh, i love you cp.
and i hate sweaty fan-boi #7

Thanks for reading!

Priceless! Priceless! I haven't read a post so enjoyable and intellectually stimulating, yet steeped in dry humour for a long time! I'm gonna dig up your old posts just to see what else you've written!

Bonecrusher27 wrote:Priceless! Priceless! I haven't read a post so enjoyable and intellectually stimulating, yet steeped in dry humour for a long time! I'm gonna dig up your old posts just to see what else you've written!

It's all drivel.

I'm a complete hack.

Nice...enjoyable. For those dreading ebay- scalpers are in it for short term return, most of us collectors stick to long term returns if we do indeed sale- I look at it as having the last laugh. Thanks CP- Im sure someone will post- "why would I live and die in WM?"

Xgamer wrote:"why would I live and die in WM?"

It's a reference to the absurd amount of time we spend in and the crazy hours at which time we visit Wal Mart.

I mean, going into WalMart at 1 am because you know that's when they take break and the pallets are otherwise unguarded...

that's not right.

wow. what a witty elucidation on the financial benefits (and pitfalls) of collecting TFs. i have never enjoyed (or learned from, a thing or two) such a long and knowledgeable post on this side of Seibs' boards. on a side note, are you like smeagol/gollum?

zemper wrote:wow. what a witty elucidation on the financial benefits (and pitfalls) of collecting TFs. i have never enjoyed (or learned from, a thing or two) such a long and knowledgeable post on this side of Seibs' boards. on a side note, are you like smeagol/gollum?

Thank you.

And to answer your question, Yes.

Punch: "Idiot!"

um, No...

cp's just one man, with two brains.. kinda like that steve martin movie

decepticonjon wrote:cp's just one man, with two brains.. kinda like that steve martin movie

One of them is a squeak toy.

Very entertaining and informative. Also it helps me justify spending oodles of money. Since my wife met you at Botcon, i can just point her here, and say, "See honey, Mike says to do this, so it has to be the right thing."

Priceless, look forward to more, but only if you put the kind of effort into making them both informative and entertaining, like this one.



*I think you should have thrown in more emoticons though.

tigertracks 24 wrote:Very entertaining and informative. Also it helps me justify spending oodles of money. Since my wife met you at Botcon, i can just point her here, and say, "See honey, Mike says to do this, so it has to be the right thing."

Priceless, look forward to more, but only if you put the kind of effort into making them both informative and entertaining, like this one.



*I think you should have thrown in more emoticons though.

I only show emotion through my sig at this point in my career.





Thanks for the kind words. I'd like to do more editorial stuff like this in the future. I'm always up for topic suggestions.

Counterpunch wrote:

tigertracks 24 wrote:Very entertaining and informative. Also it helps me justify spending oodles of money. Since my wife met you at Botcon, i can just point her here, and say, "See honey, Mike says to do this, so it has to be the right thing."

Priceless, look forward to more, but only if you put the kind of effort into making them both informative and entertaining, like this one.



*I think you should have thrown in more emoticons though.

I only show emotion through my sig at this point in my career.





Thanks for the kind words. I'd like to do more editorial stuff like this in the future. I'm always up for topic suggestions.

(cough) Japanese Vs. Domestic Releases (cough)

or

HASBRO Vs. Takara-Tomy- Who is the smarter producer?

Unlike StarWars or other collectable where technology consistently improves and the toys are actually better than they were 20+ years ago; Transformers only becomes different. <

I don't agree. It's almost quite the opposite. Transformers VASTLY improved in the past 20 years. More complex transformations, immensely better articulation, detailing, paint apps vs stickers, better and more complex gimmicks. Star Wars? An action figure is still that, just an action figure. Only the detailing, style and realism changed. These toys are merely variations from what was available back then. Nothing to write home about.

I enjoyed the read, very stimulating...I did like the dry humor as well.. but you do bring up a valid point, that Is a major concern to me..at least in this area of Virginia i have seen the recent trends of clearance Prices and sales decline to an almost week event.. where if you don't see it after that week, then your S.O.L. I am not entirely sure if those same fanboys, scalpers, or employees themselves are buying them up very quickly or not, but the trend seems to be that every store in this area is "Out of Stock" almost immediately after the clearance sales happen. Or very little is even on clearance too..there just seems to be no stock in those isles.. its like every other toy property gets ordered and reordered, but they keep on hand, only a handful of Transformers..its like everywhere around here...

Then there is the fact that some areas are just not getting items that are released at all. its as if those local retail stores are only ordering specific cases, and there by excluding fans and collectors from ever receiving those certain figures all together. I have yet to even once see a 2008 Bumblebee on any toy shelf here. I have key people who work at those stores on my cell phone and I also frequent those stores every night around 1AM. I still end up frustrated. I have asked around, an the most answers I get are that it just hasn't made it to this area yet. Which also means that areas saturated with those figures can easily end up on eBay at much higher prices.

So to your point buy at the store and get them ahead of time before they end up on eBay, but then there is the increasing problem of what if they never end up at your store to begin with??


I do agree that the Generation One Merchandise is in a class all it's own. I do think too that the reissue market is going to take a huge hit in inventory over the next several years and is directly related to the Movie popularity.

I was a staunch comic fan for years, and in the early 90s was heavily into comics, it wasn't until the 80s property revivals that began there and spilled out into the toy market that I was interested in transformers again. Dreamwave paved the way and Armada brought me back to the collection field. I started to see vintage transformers from 1980s appear in comic shops all over and for like 200.00 a piece!! Gi Joes as well..But when I saw the Dreamwave package inspired Reissues from Takara online, I went nutso, I ordered almost every one..!!

I saw the Hasbro versions in Toys R US, but they changed some stuff on them,for safety reasons, and I was disappointed..So to me as a new found collector of transformers I wanted the exact same thing I had when i was a kid, only to me those Reissues were better then the originals, simply because they were "Brand New" and being the exact same things that were released when I was a kid from directly from Takara. So I payed a little more for the imports but was thoroughly satisfied..And still saved more money then trying to find an original 80s in moderate condition..

As the Movie and popularity ensue, I think the Reissue market will eventually reach a stature similar to that of the originals..simply because of the quality the items are reproduced in..

Also its been feeling like to me lately that if you don't get any transformers now, especially the sought afters, then your gonna be risking sell outs or Uber expensive prices when you do have the cash saved up.. and will end up affording less figures for the money you have.

Supply has become limited through the course of time..I agree pay to Play or you end up risking the unthinkable.. going without..

great post counterpunch/Punch..

Great Post CP...and P!

One thing I would like to add is that when waiting for someting to go on clearance, you are truly gambling that the secondary market won't pick it up. So predicting what will be clearanced and waiting is difficulte as the figure you want, but think is not popular, is the next big thing on e-bay.

Except I did get the Movie BumbleBee Water Pistol for 11 dollars the other day at TRU on clearance!

Finally someone addressed what needed to be addressed. Very enjoyable.

Rule #1 is the most important, kids. Ante up or leave the table...poker just ain't fair.

I'd also like to support Getter's post. It's the same reason that I don't support WalMart...getting the best deal is not always in one's long-term best interest. I don't know who said it first, but it is the most important mantra of the century.

"Pay now, or pay later."

Not bad for a freakin' schizo.

Very enjoyable read! Very good points(pay now or pay higher later is sooooo right)nice "dry humor" wish I had some of the G1 toys but I didnt get into TF's until Beast Wars and there after.

Some other good post's are right thro, I havent seen a few toys in my area either and not paying e-bay prices for a 9.99 toy?? Guess I'll just have to wait or call family members in other states to get what I want.


Thanks you for the enjoyable read!!


blkbitcloud1

I feel enlightened.

But one thing i know for sure about one of the toys I own. Armada Sideswipe's price on Ebay will never, ever go up. That thing is a disgrace to the Transformers name

This was so good and informative, I posted it in the news.

A very good article, spot on too.

Nice work CP. Hope to see more soon...

Hotrod wrote:This was so good and informative, I posted it in the news.

Nice, I was happily surprised to see that that was green-lighted.

Good job CP/P!

Hense why I'm waiting until the movie hype dies down and I can afford to buy TFs on eBay again.. until then..

Hotrod wrote:This was so good and informative, I posted it in the news.

Holy Crap! Something other than obscenities got me on the front page of the news!

Thanks boss!

I hope to do more articles like this if people can stand to read it.